Business jet sales and acquisitions specialist Jetcraft has published a five-year pre-owned business aviation market forecast. The company said the move introduced an enhanced data-driven methodology recognising potential market opportunities and incorporating more global trends.
The market forecast predicts pre-owned aircraft transaction volume and value will maintain their current growth rates, reaching 2,647 transactions valued at US$12.4bn annually by 2025.
“Since the pandemic, the true benefits of business aviation have been realised, particularly by new entrants who have had the means to fly privately but never previously the inclination, and we have seen our industry thrive,” said Jahid Fazal-Karim, owner and chairman of the board at Jetcraft. “The combination of limited commercial airline services, plus expanding offerings within business aviation, presents the sector with a real opportunity to further broaden its customer base and secure long-term prosperity, and we have highlighted some of these areas in our forecast. We are also predicting the industry will maintain its post-pandemic momentum and expect to see 12,261 pre-owned transactions worth US$57.2bn in value over the next five years.”
This year’s analysis introduces an updated methodology as well as insights into key drivers reflecting pre-owned market growth, which incorporates global trends data and market opportunities.
“Manufacturer backlogs and wait times for new aircraft are rising,” said Fazal-Karim. “This factor, paired with a growing buyer pool, means many will be compelled to turn to pre-owned aircraft to meet their needs. Our forecast finds that regional drivers, such as wealth levels and flying hours, represent the main reasons behind ownership in North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe, and these continents also retain the highest UHNWI populations. So, with the projected growth in wealth converging with increased use in business jet solutions, we expect to see the road to ownership accelerate among many users, which is an exciting prospect.”
Jetcraft said that despite record industry demand, it expects market values to remain rational. It added that the current market strength is predicted to last until late 2022, with average transaction value set to grow marginally until 2024, partly due to an increase in large jet sales, which command higher prices. Depreciation rates are expected to return to normal by 2025.
“The evolution of business aviation post-pandemic is a demonstration of the industry’s resilience and growing appeal,” said Fazal-Karim. “I’m especially proud to be sharing our annual industry outlook this year.”